Good news, everyone!

My Füsun Teyze and her boyfriend Carl have now married! I was there, and I was an usher! It was quite cool.

But though this event is near and dear to my heart, I wanted to also commemorate the normalization of relations between Turkey and Armenia. The Nagorno-Karabakh War between Armenia and Azerbaijan prompted Turkey to seal its Armenian border and cut ties in 1993. Tough times lie ahead, but this was a big step for both countries. Especially interesting will be the results of an independent investigation into the Armenian Genocide that started in 1915, and how each country and their diasporae (is that a word? Firefox says yes!) react. It's really a relief to see some concrete movement towards peace and stability in the we're-part-of-UEFA-but-not-generally-considered-part-of-Europe-exactly region.

Speaking of UEFA and Turkey, I am sad to report that Turkey's World Cup dreams for 2010 have officially ended with a victory by Bosnia-Herzegovina over Estonia in the UEFA qualifiers. Incidentally, Armenia was in the same group, but they were already eliminated. Anyway, good luck to Bosnia, I suppose. They'd better fucking win it all if they're going to go beating Turkey's asses in.

(Post edited to change the awful EUFA into UEFA. That was embarrassing. The embarrassing lack of flow and awesomeness, however, shall remain.)

The road to serfdom is paved with good intentions

But that has absolutely nothing to do with why I'm here. Two things:

One more grade has been reported, and it is with great pleasure that I present it.

Globalization: A

It's lovely how classes can have such succinct names, yes? After checking Blackboard to see how I did and to see just where I fell on the grading scale, I calculated a 90.25% average, with 90% being the minimum for an A. Holy shit do I love cutting it close. I did get a bit more hopeful after I turned in the final exam when the professor thanked me for the second time in two days for my participation in the classroom. And thank God I participated, because that got me three extra credit points at the end that squirted me into w00t.

However, my final final is tomorrow. And I haven't studied contrary to plans, contrary to needs. It's Differential Equations, and the class is a bit of a motherfucker. I have no idea what I'm going to do in the intervening twelve hours between the present and my final, except that there will probably be very little sleeping. I may come by beforehand to give you an update as to the prognosis, but I will say right now that the final grade probability distribution breaks down like this:

A: 20%
B: 70%
C: 10%

And since I have been playing a lot of poker recently (profiting approximately $40 after playing in approximately 40 sit-n-go tournaments), I like to think of these percentages in their poker equivalents. So, the chances of me getting an A are about the same as catching a flush on the river if I have four of a suit on the turn. The chances of me getting a B are about the same as pocket kings beating AK off-suit before any cards are shown. The chances of me getting a C are about the same as QJ off-suit beating pocket queens.

Thinking of this does not help at all. Unless the situation is guaranteed to be 100% solid in poker I always have that feeling of apprehension especially since I've seen all of the unlikely events happen, sometimes to me. Poker gives you really weird feelings toward probability.

So we'll see what I do to make some of those percentages go up and down. ('Cause I know you're interested.)

In other news, Izmir hosted the latest protests against Islam in Turkish government. Over one million turned out, but at least a lot of them seem as hostile to military coups as they are to political Islam. This is good. I just hope that they don't start tacking back towards the military if the elections don't go their way, particularly since the polls suggest that the moderately Islamist AK Party will win the elections again.

Also, I'd like to ask the Turkish military to please be more reconciliatory towards the Kurds, both within Turkey and without. I'd be particularly devastated if you decided to take action without approval from your masters in the government.

Bol sans, Türkiye.

Fuck Turkish Secularism

My sentiment comes to you at least a week late, but I've been harboring it ever since the fiasco with the Turkish presidency started to unfold. Last week's edition of The Economist featured a large Turkish flag with a reaching hand's silhouette on the cover with the title "The battle for Turkey's soul". The associated article can be found for free through this link. A companion article from the same issue can be found here. For those of you who don't care to read an article or two at this moment (but want to read the disconnected rambling of a non-journalist), let me provide a brief synopsis:

The president of the Republic of Turkey is elected by the Grand National Assembly (Parliament), and he wields moderate power, including the ability to block legislation and appoint the Chief of the General Staff. At present the post is filled by a secularist judge, and many believe that he is the last remaining check on the governing Justice and Development Party (AKP), which is moderately Islamist and which many fear would exercise its expanded power to Islamicize the Turkish Republic if the president were one of theirs.

In the history of the Republic, no president has had Islamist roots with the exception of Celal Bayar, who was sentenced to death, which was then commmuted to life imprisonment, and later pardoned, after the first Turkish military coup in 1960 (his prime minister wasn't so lucky--they just hanged him). We see a natural aversion to Islam in Turkish politics partly because of Bayar's party's governance, partly because of Atatürk's secularist vision and the resultant reforms, and partly because the Turks largely adore and trust the military, viewed as the guarantor of stability and prosperity after its four coups since Atatürk's days (in 1960, 1971, 1980 and 1997)

Why is this relevant? The current president's term is about to expire, and to replace him the AKP had nominated Abdullah Gül, a respected statesman and the current foreign minister. And immediately the secular elites got to protesting. Hundreds of thousands in Ankara, still more in Istanbul, chanted slogans and waved banners demanding a secularist president. Now I love my people, but they can be unconscionably superstitious, reactionary, pig-headed and paranoid if given half a chance. The AKP has shown little if any inclination towards dismantling the secular state and is in fact responsible for a whole slew of reforms that previous governments never quite got around to, prompting the most excited response from the EU that Turkey has ever managed--not that the response was much more than tepid, but it was a significant improvement. In fact, any drifts towards a more religious state have more often been quashed by the EU's stern warnings rather than the secularist president, and if the army decides to intervene again, Turkey can kiss her slim hopes of EU membership goodbye for decades. Already Turks have grown strong feelings of resentment towards the US and the EU for many reasons, and Turkey will be hurt considerably if the US and EU reciprocate (or, in the case of the EU, reciprocate more).

The single opposition party in Parliament with any degree of clout, none other than Atatürk's old Republican People's Party (CHP), has boycotted the balloting for the presidency, preventing Parliament from reaching a quorum and nullifying the vote. Prime Minister Recep Tayyip Erdogan has called for general elections to be moved forward a few months, to July, in hopes of resolving this situation. And all the while the army sits there and glares threateningly. The army has also made some threats, suggesting that it may have to intervene to protect secularism if it seems that Atatürk's principles are in danger. The AKP government has been surprisingly effective unlike the vast majority of Turkey's previous governments, which have been marred by horrid leadership and pathetic policy; Turkey does not need another coup.

If the AKP has a dark side, let them show it like every other governing party does. Turkey is supposed to be a moderately mature and ever-maturing democracy, but its growth will be stifled if the military decides to shield the people from their own will every time they think something is wrong. Turkey will not become fanatical if you permit moderate Islam just as Germany under the Christian Democrats is not fanatical. But if you repeatedly silence the millions of pious Turks, particularly when the government they've chosen is performing admirably, then you will truly need to worry about Islam in Turkey.